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双语对照:国新办举行一季度国民经济运行情况新闻发布会

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发表于 2020-4-22 03:39:48 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
袭艳春:

Xi Yanchun:

女士们、先生们、记者朋友们,欢迎大家出席国务院新闻办新闻发布会。今天国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会介绍2020年一季度国民经济运行情况。大家都知道,2020年一季度是比较特殊的一季度,因为这是我们面临新冠肺炎疫情严峻挑战的一个季度,也是我们统筹抓好疫情防控和经济社会发展的一个季度。今天我们邀请到国家统计局新闻发言人毛盛勇先生,请他向大家介绍情况并回答记者朋友们的提问。 

Ladies and gentlemen, friends from the media: Welcome to this press conference held by the State Council Information Office (SCIO). Today, we will brief you on the national economic performance in the first quarter of 2020. As known to all, the first quarter of this year is a relatively special one, because this is a quarter in which we faced the severe challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is also a quarter in which we coordinated efforts for pandemic prevention and control and economic and social development. We have invited Mr. Mao Shengyong, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), to brief you and take questions from media friends.

有请毛司长。

I will now give the floor to Mr. Mao.

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

谢谢主持人。女士们、先生们,各位记者朋友,大家上午好。按照惯例,我先给大家介绍一下一季度国民经济运行的基本情况,然后回答大家的提问。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, friends from the media, good morning. As usual, I will first share with you the basic information on national economic performance in the first quarter, and then I will answer your questions.

统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展成效显著,3月份主要经济指标降幅明显收窄。

Coordinative efforts for pandemic prevention and control and economic and social development have delivered notable results, and the decline of major economic indicators has been significantly narrowed down in March.

一季度,面对新冠肺炎疫情带来的严峻考验,在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下,各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署,全国上下统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展各项工作,疫情防控形势持续向好,我国本土疫情传播基本阻断,复工复产加快推进,关系国计民生的基础行业和重要产品稳定增长,基本民生得到较好保障,经济社会发展大局稳定。

In the first quarter, faced with the severe test of the COVID-19 outbreak, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, and the whole nation coordinated efforts to advance both the prevention and control of the disease and the economic and social development of the country. As a result, the situation of pandemic control and prevention continued to improve with a basic interruption in virus transmission at home. The resumption of work and production accelerated, with fundamental industries and major products vital to the national economy and people's livelihoods growing steadily. People's basic livelihood was well guaranteed, and national economic and social development reached overall stability.   

初步核算,一季度国内生产总值206504亿元,按可比价格计算,同比下降6.8%。分产业看,第一产业增加值10186亿元,下降3.2%;第二产业增加值73638亿元,下降9.6%;第三产业增加值122680亿元,下降5.2%。

According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 20.65 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2020 — a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% at comparable prices. By industry, the value-added of the primary industry was 1.02 trillion yuan, down by 3.2%; that of the secondary industry was 7.36 trillion yuan, down by 9.6%; and that of the tertiary industry was 12.27 trillion yuan, down by 5.2%.

一、农业生产基本平稳,粮食生产形势较好

First, overall agricultural production was steady and the grain grew well.

一季度,农业(种植业)增加值同比增长3.5%。目前,全国主要农区气候条件总体有利,春耕春播进展顺利,冬小麦整体长势好于上年和常年。3月底,全国冬小麦一、二类苗播种面积比重达到87.2%,比上年同期增加3.5个百分点。一季度,禽蛋产量增长4.3%,牛奶产量增长4.6%,猪牛羊禽肉产量1813万吨。生猪产能持续恢复,一季度末,生猪存栏32120万头,比上年四季度末增长3.5%,其中能繁殖母猪存栏3381万头,增长9.8%。

In the first quarter, the value-added of agriculture (crop farming) grew by 3.5% year-on-year. With currently favorable climate conditions in major farming areas, spring plowing and sowing went smoothly, and winter wheat grew better than last year and average years. By the end of March, the sown area of gradeⅠand gradeⅡseedlings of winter wheat accounted for 87.2% of the total, 3.5 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. In the first quarter, the output of eggs grew by 4.3%, and that of milk grew by 4.6%. The output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 18.13 million tons. The pig production capacity continued to recover. By the end of the first quarter, 321.2 million pigs were registered in stock — up by 3.5% over the end of the fourth quarter of 2019 — among which 33.81 million were breeding sows, up by 9.8%.

二、工业生产下降,基础原材料产业和高技术制造业保持增长

Second, industrial production fell while the industry of basic raw materials and high-tech manufacturing continued to increase.  

一季度,全国规模以上工业增加值同比下降8.4%。其中,3月份规模以上工业增加值同比下降1.1%,降幅较 1-2月份收窄12.4个百分点;环比增长32.13%,工业产出规模接近去年同期水平。分经济类型看,一季度国有控股企业增加值同比下降6.0%;股份制企业下降8.4%,外商及港澳台商投资企业下降14.5%;私营企业下降11.3%。分三大门类看,采矿业增加值下降1.7%,制造业下降10.2%,电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业下降5.2%。基础原材料和新产品生产保持增长,天然气、无纺布、化学药品原药、原油、十种有色金属、乙烯和粗钢产量分别增长9.1%、6.1%、4.5%、2.4%、2.1%、1.3% 和1.2%;自动售货机、售票机,电子元件,集成电路,城市轨道车辆,太阳能电池产量分别增长35.3%、16.2%、16.0%、13.1%和3.4%。3月份,高技术制造业同比增长8.9%,其中计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长9.9%。工业机器人和发电机组产量分别增长12.9%和20.0%。

In the first quarter, the total value-added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size went down by 8.4% year-on-year. Specifically, in March, the total value-added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size went down by 1.1% year-on-year, or 12.4 percentage points slower than the decline of the first two months, while the month-on-month growth was 32.13%, with the industrial output approaching the level of the same period last year. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value-added of the state holding enterprises dropped by 6% year-on-year; that of share-holding enterprises fell by 8.4%; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was down by 14.5%; and that of private enterprises was down by 11.3%. In terms of sectors, the value-added of mining went down by 1.7%, manufacturing fell by 10.2% and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water was down by 5.2%. The production of basic raw materials and new products maintained growth. The output of natural gas, non-woven fabrics, chemical medicine materials, crude oil, 10 kinds of nonferrous metal, ethylene and crude steel went up by 9.1%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 2.4%, 2.1%, 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively. The output of automatic vending and ticket machines, electronic components, integrated circuits, urban rail vehicles and solar cells went up by 35.3%, 16.2%, 16.0%, 13.1% and 3.4%, respectively. In March, high-tech manufacturing went up by 8.9% year-on-year, and this includes the manufacturing of computers, communication equipment and other electronic equipment, which collectively went up by 9.9%. The output of industrial robots and power generation equipment went up by 12.9% and 20.0%, respectively.

三、服务业生产下滑,新兴服务业增势良好

Third, service production dropped while the emerging service industry grew.

一季度,第三产业增加值同比下降,其中信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业,金融业增加值分别增长13.2%和6.0%。3月份,全国服务业生产指数下降9.1%,降幅较1-2月份收窄3.9个百分点。1-2月份,规模以上服务业企业营业收入下降12.2%,其中互联网和相关服务、软件和信息技术服务业营业收入分别增长10.1%和0.7%。3月份,服务业商务活动指数为51.8%,比上月回升21.7个百分点。其中交通运输、仓储和邮政业,零售业和货币金融服务等行业商务活动指数相对较高,分别为59.3%、60.6%和62.9%。从市场预期看,服务业业务活动预期指数为56.8%,比上月回升17.1个百分点,企业对市场发展信心增强。

In the first quarter, the total value-added of the tertiary industry dropped year-on-year, while that of the information transmission, software and information technology services and that of financial intermediation went up by 13.2% and 6.0%, respectively. In March, the Index of Services Production dropped by 9.1%, 3.9 percentage points slower than the decline of the first two months. In the first two months, the business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size dropped by 12.2%; this includes that of internet and related services and that of software and information technology services, which went up by 10.1% and 0.7%, respectively. In March, the Business Activity Index for services was 51.8%, 21.7 percentage points higher than last month. Specifically, the Business Activity Index for transportation, storage and post, retail trades and monetary and financial services was relatively high, reaching 59.3%, 60.6% and 62.9%, respectively. In terms of market expectation, the Business Activities Expectation Index for services was 56.8%, which is 17.1 percentage points higher than last month, showing greater confidence of enterprises in market development.

四、市场销售减少,生活必需品销售和实物商品网上零售较快增长

Fourth, market sales decreased while sales of daily necessities and online retail sales of physical goods grew fast. 

一季度,社会消费品零售总额78580亿元,同比下降19.0%。其中,3月份社会消费品零售总额26450亿元,下降15.8%,降幅比1-2月份收窄4.7个百分点;商品零售下降12.0%,降幅比1-2月份收窄5.6个百分点。按经营单位所在地分,一季度城镇消费品零售额67855亿元,下降19.1%;乡村消费品零售额10725亿元,下降17.7%。按消费类型分,餐饮收入6026亿元,下降44.3%;商品零售72553亿元,下降15.8%。与居民生活密切相关商品呈现增长态势,限额以上单位粮油、食品类,饮料类和中西药品类商品分别增长12.6%、4.1%和2.9%,比1-2月份分别加快2.9、1.0和2.7个百分点。全国网上零售额22169亿元,同比下降0.8%。其中,实物商品网上零售额18536亿元,增长5.9%,比1-2月份加快2.9个百分点;占社会消费品零售总额的比重为23.6%,比1-2月份提高2.1个百分点。

In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 7,858 billion yuan, down by 19.0% year-on-year. In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2,645 billion yuan, down by 15.8%, a decline narrowed by 4.7 percentage points compared to that of the first two months of the year. The retail sales of goods went down by 12.0%, a decline that has narrowed by 5.6 percentage points compared to that of the first two months of the year. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas in the first quarter reached 6,785.5 billion yuan, down by 19.1%, and the retail sales in rural areas stood at 1,072.5 billion yuan, down by 17.7%. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of catering was 602.6 billion yuan, down by 44.3%; and the retail sales of goods amounted to 7,255.3 billion yuan, down by 15.8%. Commodities closely related to people's lives witnessed growth. The grain, oil and food, beverages and traditional Chinese and Western medicines produced by businesses above the designated size grew by 12.6%, 4.1% and 2.9%, respectively, or 2.9 percentage points, 1.0 percentage point and 2.7 percentage points higher than the growth in the first two months. Online retail sales reached 2,216.9 billion yuan, down by 0.8% year-on-year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods were 1,853.6 billion yuan, up by 5.9% and 2.9 percentage points higher than that of the first two months of 2020, accounting for 23.6% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, which is 2.1 percentage points higher than that of the first two months.

五、投资活动放缓,电子商务、专业技术服务和抗疫相关行业投资增长

Fifth, investment growth slowed down while e-commerce, professional technical services and anti-epidemic related industries saw growth.

一季度,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)84145亿元,同比下降16.1%,降幅比1-2月份收窄8.4个百分点。分领域看,基础设施投资下降19.7%,制造业投资下降25.2%,房地产开发投资下降7.7%,降幅分别比1-2月份收窄10.6、6.3和8.6个百分点。全国商品房销售面积21978万平方米,下降26.3%;商品房销售额20365亿元,下降24.7%,降幅分别比1-2月份收窄13.6和11.2个百分点。分产业看,第一产业投资下降13.8%,第二产业投资下降21.9%,第三产业投资下降13.5%;民间投资47804亿元,下降18.8%,降幅分别比1-2月份收窄11.8、6.3、9.5和7.6个百分点。高技术产业投资下降12.1%,降幅小于全部投资4.0个百分点,其中高技术制造业和高技术服务业投资分别下降13.5%和9.0%。高技术制造业中,计算机及办公设备制造投资增长3.2%。高技术服务业中,电子商务服务投资增长39.6%,专业技术服务投资增长36.7%,科技成果转化服务投资增长17.4%。社会领域投资下降8.8%,其中卫生领域投资下降0.9%,降幅低于全部投资15.2个百分点,生物药品制品制造业等与抗疫相关行业投资保持增长,重点防疫工程建设快速推进。从环比看,3月份固定资产投资(不含农户)比上月增长6.05%。

In the first quarter, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 8,414.5 billion yuan, down by 16.1% year-on-year and 8.4 percentage points slower than the decline of the first two months of 2020. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure, manufacturing and real estate development declined by 19.7%, 25.2% and 7.7%, respectively, which amounts to 10.6 percentage points, 6.3 percentage points and 8.6 percentage points slower than the decline of the first two months of the year. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 219.78 million square meters, down by 26.3%, and the total sales of commercial buildings were 2,036.5 billion yuan, down by 24.7%, the decline of which was narrowed by 13.6 percentage points and 11.2 percentage points compared to that of the first two months of the year, respectively. By industry, the investment in the primary industry went down by 13.8%; the secondary industry went down by 21.9%; the tertiary industry fell by 13.5%; and the private investment sector reached 4,780.4 billion yuan, down by 18.8%. The decline was narrowed by 11.8 percentage points, 6.3 percentage points, 9.5 percentage points and 7.6 percentage points, respectively, compared to that of the first two months. Investment in high-tech industry declined by 12.1%, which is 4.0 percentage points slower than that of the total investment. Of the total, the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services went down by 13.5% and 9.0%, respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, investment in the manufacturing of computers and office equipment grew by 3.2%. In terms of high-tech services, investment in e-commerce services went up by 39.6%, investment in professional technical services went up by 36.7 %, and investment in services for commercialization of research findings rose by 17.4%. Investment in social sectors went down by 8.8%, and investment in the health sector dropped by 0.9%, or 15.2 percentage points slower than the decline of the total investment. Investment in manufacturing of biological medicines, products and other anti-epidemic related industries maintained growth, and construction of key projects for epidemic prevention accelerated. In March, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) grew by 6.05% month-on-month.

六、货物进出口减缓,贸易结构继续改善

Sixth, imports and exports of goods slowed down and trade structure continued to optimize.

一季度,货物进出口总额65742亿元,同比下降6.4%。其中,3月份进出口总额24459亿元,同比下降0.8%,降幅比1-2月份收窄8.7个百分点。出口12927亿元,下降3.5%;进口11532亿元,增长2.4%,其中一般贸易进口增长4.0%。一季度,出口33363亿元,下降11.4%;进口32380亿元,下降0.7%。进出口相抵,贸易顺差983亿元。贸易结构继续优化。一般贸易进出口占进出口总额的比重为60.0%,比上年同期提高0.4个百分点。一季度,全国规模以上工业企业实现出口交货值24082亿元,同比下降10.3%,降幅比1-2月份收窄8.8个百分点。3月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现出口交货值10307亿元,增长3.1%。

In the first quarter, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 6,574.2 billion yuan, which is down by 6.4% year-on-year. In March, the total value of imports and exports was 2,445.9 billion yuan, down by 0.8% year-on-year, which is a decline that slowed by 8.7 percentage points compared to that of the first two months of the year. Of the total, the value of exports was 1,292.7 billion yuan, down by 3.5%, and the value of imports was 1,153.2 billion yuan, up by 2.4%, with imports of general trade growing by 4%. In the first quarter, the total value of exports was 3,336.3 billion yuan, down by 11.4%; the total value of imports was 3,238.0 billion yuan, down by 0.7%. The trade balance was 98.3 billion yuan in surplus. The trade structure continued to optimize. The import and export of general trade accounted for 60% of the total value of imports and exports, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In the first quarter, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 2,408.2 billion yuan, down by 10.3% year-on-year and 8.8 percentage points slower than the decline of the first two months of 2020. In March, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 1,030.7 billion yuan, which is up by 3.1%.

七、居民消费价格涨幅回落,工业生产者出厂价格降幅扩大

Seventh, the rising of consumer prices declined and producer prices for industrial products saw a larger drop. 

一季度,全国居民消费价格同比上涨4.9%。其中,3月份全国居民消费价格同比上涨4.3%,涨幅比2月份回落0.9个百分点;环比下降1.2%。一季度,城市上涨4.6%,农村上涨5.9%。分类别看,食品烟酒价格同比上涨14.9%,衣着上涨0.2%,居住上涨0.2%,生活用品及服务上涨0.2%,交通和通信下降1.5%,教育文化和娱乐上涨1.9%,医疗保健上涨2.2%,其他用品和服务上涨4.9%。在食品烟酒价格中,粮食价格上涨0.6%;鲜菜价格上涨9.0%,由2月份的上涨10.9%转为3月份下降0.1%;猪肉价格上涨122.5%,其中3月份上涨116.4%,比2月份回落18.8个百分点。扣除食品和能源价格后的核心CPI上涨1.3%。

In the first quarter, consumer prices went up by 4.9% year-on-year. In March, consumer prices went up by 4.3% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points lower than in February, or down by 1.2% month-on-month. In the first quarter, prices went up by 4.6% in urban areas and by 5.9% in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went up by 14.9% year-on-year; clothing went up by 0.2%; housing went up by 0.2%; articles and services for daily use went up by 0.2%; transportation and communication went down by 1.5%; education, culture and recreation went up by 1.9 %; medical services and health care went up by 2.2%; and other articles and services went up by 4.9%. In terms of food, tobacco and alcohol prices, prices for grain went up by 0.6%; fresh vegetables went up by 9.0% — specifically, their prices went up by 10.9% in February and down by 0.1% in March; pork went up by 122.5% — specifically, its prices went up by 116.4% in March, which is 18.8 percentage points lower than in February. Core CPI, excluding the price of food and energy, went up by 1.3%. 

一季度,全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降0.6%。其中3月份同比下降1.5%,环比下降1.0%,同比降幅比2月份扩大1.1个百分点。一季度,全国工业生产者购进价格同比下降0.8%。其中3月份同比下降1.6%,环比下降1.1%。

In the first quarter, producer prices for industrial products went down by 0.6% year-on-year. Specifically, prices in March dropped by 1.5% year-on-year, which is 1.1 percentage points faster than the year-on-year decline in February this year, or down by 1.0% month-on-month. In the first quarter, purchasing prices for industrial products went down by 0.8% year-on-year. In March, prices dropped by 1.6% year-on-year, or by 1.1% month-on-month.

八、全国城镇调查失业率有所下降,就业形势总体稳定

Eighth, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas dropped slightly while employment was generally stable.

一季度,全国城镇新增就业人员229万人。3月份,全国城镇调查失业率为5.9%,比2月份下降0.3个百分点;其中25-59岁群体人口调查失业率为5.4%,低于全国城镇调查失业率0.5个百分点,比上月下降0.2个百分点。31个大城市城镇调查失业率为5.7%,与上月持平。3月份,全国企业就业人员周平均工作时间为44.8小时,比上月增加4.6小时。2月末,外出务工农村劳动力总量12251万人。

In the first quarter, the newly increased number of employed people in urban areas totaled 2.29 million. In March, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.9%, 0.3 percentage points lower than that of February. Specifically, the surveyed unemployment rate of members of the population aged from 25 to 59 was 5.4%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas and 0.2 percentage points lower than that of last month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.7%, which is the same as last month. In March, the employees of enterprises worked an average of 44.8 hours per week, which is 4.6 hours more than last month. By the end of February, the number of rural migrant workers reached 122.51 million.

九、居民名义收入增加实际收入减少,城乡居民人均可支配收入比值略有缩小

Ninth, residents' nominal income increased while real income decreased and the per capita disposable income ratio between urban and rural households dropped slightly. 

一季度,全国居民人均可支配收入8561元,同比名义增长0.8%,扣除价格因素实际下降3.9%。按常住地分,城镇居民人均可支配收入11691元,名义增长0.5%,实际下降3.9%;农村居民人均可支配收入4641元,名义增长0.9%,实际下降4.7%。从收入来源看,全国居民人均工资性收入同比名义增长1.2%,经营净收入下降7.3%,财产净收入增长2.7%,转移净收入增长6.8%。城乡居民人均收入比值2.52,比上年同期缩小0.01。全国居民人均可支配收入中位数7109元,下降0.7%。

In the first quarter, the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 8,561 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.8% year-on-year, or a real decrease of 3.9% after deducting price factors. In terms of permanent residences, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 11,691 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.5%, or a real decrease of 3.9%. The per capita disposable income of rural households was 4,641 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.9%, or a real decrease of 4.7%. By sources of income, the nationwide per capita wage income went up by 1.2% year-on-year in nominal terms, net operating income went down by 7.3%, net property income went up by 2.7%, and net transfer income went up by 6.8%. The per capita disposable income of urban households was 2.52 times that of the rural households, a reduction of 0.01 than that of the same period last year. The median of the nationwide per capita disposable income was 7,109 yuan, down by 0.7%.

总的来看,一季度,在新冠肺炎疫情冲击下我国经济社会大局保持稳定。同时也要看到,当前国际疫情持续蔓延,世界经济下行风险加剧,不稳定不确定因素显著增多,我国防范疫情输入压力不断加大,复工复产和经济社会发展面临新的困难和挑战。

Generally speaking, the overall national economic and social development in the first quarter remained stable despite the outbreak of COVID-19. However, we should also be aware that given the continuous spread of the pandemic, the mounting downward pressure of the world economy, and remarkably increasing instabilities and uncertainties, we are now facing increasing pressure related to the prevention of imported infections and new difficulties and challenges for resuming work and production while continuing to promote economic and social development. 

下一步,要坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署,进一步统筹做好推进疫情防控和经济社会发展工作,加大力度落实复工复产复市复业政策,着力保障和改善民生,坚持在常态化疫情防控中加快推进生产生活秩序全面恢复,确保实现决胜全面建成小康社会、决战脱贫攻坚目标任务。谢谢。

For the next step, we must fully implement the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, further coordinate efforts to advance both epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development and enhance policy implementation to resume work, production, market function and business. We must guarantee and improve people's livelihoods and accelerate the full restoration of productivity and living order under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control measures, thereby ensuring a decisive victory in building a moderately prosperous society and achieving poverty alleviation goals. Thank you.

袭艳春:

Xi Yanchun:

好的,感谢毛盛勇先生的介绍。下面我们就进入答问环节。提问前,还是请通报一下所在的新闻机构。

Thank you, Mr. Mao. Now the floor is open for questions. Please identify your news outlets before asking questions.

中央广播电视总台央视记者:

CCTV:

从您刚才发布的数据来看,一季度经济增速明显下滑,但从单月看,3月份多数指标降幅大幅收窄,当前国内外经济形势错综复杂,请问您如何看待一季度经济运行情况?下一阶段经济走势如何?谢谢。 

According to statistics you've just released, economic growth apparently slumped in the first quarter of this year, and the decline of most indicators narrowed to a great extent in March. Under the complex economic circumstances both at home and abroad, what are your comments on the economic situation in the first quarter and its trend in the next phase? Thank you.

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

谢谢你的提问。从刚才我发布的数据和介绍的情况来看,突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情确实对我国经济运行造成了比较大的影响。一季度,主要经济指标明显下滑,但是我们也看到,3月份主要经济指标呈现回升势头,降幅明显收窄。同时,我们也要看到,尽管疫情冲击严重,但是基础工业保持正常增长,防疫物资供应和生活必需品供应保障有力,14亿人的基本民生得到了较好保障,社会大局是稳定的。

Thank you for your question. Based on the newly released statistics and my introduction, the outbreak of COVID-19 had a great impact on China's economic operation. In the first quarter of 2020, all economic indicators slumped, but we also noted that the main indicators showed recovery momentum in March, and the decline narrowed sharply. At the same time, we must take into account that, despite the impact of the pandemic, basic industry has maintained a normal level of increase; the supply of pandemic prevention commodities and daily necessities has been guaranteed; the livelihoods of 1.4 billion people have been guaranteed, and the overall social situation has been stable. 

从这些数据来看,有几个突出的特点:

The statistics had the following prominent characteristics:

第一,3月份主要经济指标明显改善。随着疫情防控成效不断显现,复工复产进度加快推进,3月份主要经济指标包括工业、服务业、投资、社零和进出口,降幅都是大幅度收窄,呈现改善趋势。举一个例子,比如规模以上工业增加值,上年的3月份同比增长8.5%,增速是一年中最高的月份。今年3月份,规模以上工业增加值下降1.1%,比1-2月份大幅收窄了12.4个百分点,3月份规模以上产出水平基本恢复到了去年同期水平。3月份,从41个行业来看,90%的行业当月增加值都比1-2月份加快,其中有40%的行业同比增长;从统计的600多种主要工业产品来看,约有40%的工业产品产量同比增长。所以,说明工业生产恢复的效果还是比较明显的,其他相关指标也有同样类似的特点。

First, primary economic indicators improved in March. As pandemic prevention and control measures have continuously taken effect and the resumption of work and production has been accelerated, the decline of main economic indicators — including industries, services, investments, total retail sales of consumer goods, imports and exports — narrowed sharply in March, showing signs of improvement. For example, the value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 8.5% year-on-year in March last year, the highest growth speed among 12 months of last year. In March of this year, the value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.1%, which is 12.4 percentage points slower than the decline of the first two months. The output of industrial enterprises above the designated size in March returned to the level of the same period last year. In March, as for 41 industries, 90% of the value-added increased faster than that of the first two months and 40% realized year-on-year growth. As for the output of statistically more than 600 main industrial products, 40% of them realized year-on-year growth. Therefore, statistics showed that the restoration of industrial production has taken effect, and the other related indicators displayed similar characteristics.  

第二,就业物价总体平稳。随着生产生活秩序逐步恢复,就业形势总体是平稳的,3月份全国城镇调查失业率是5.9%,比2月份降低了0.3个百分点。25到59岁的就业主体人群调查失业率是5.4%,比上月降低了0.2个百分点。我们也可以看到,尽管疫情冲击严重,但全国没有发生大规模裁员的情况,就业形势总体平稳。从价格来看,3月份居民消费价格(CPI)涨幅是回落的,CPI环比由上月上涨0.8%转为下降1.2%,当月CPI同比上涨4.3%,比上月回落了0.9个百分点,整个一季度CPI的涨幅是4.9%,比1-2月份回落了0.4个百分点。这是什么意思呢?居民消费价格涨幅回落的主要原因是食品价格涨幅回落,特别是包括猪肉在内的食品价格同比价格涨幅回落、环比下降。这样的结果说明食品供应比较充裕、社会物流比较畅通。

Second, employment and commodity prices were generally stable. With the restoration of production and normal life, the overall employment situation was stable. In March, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.9%, 0.3 percentage points lower than that of February. The surveyed unemployment rate of members of the population aged from 25 to 59 was 5.4%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of last month. We can see that, despite the impact of the pandemic, there was no large-scale unemployment across China, and the employment situation was generally stable. As for commodity prices, the growth of the CPI declined in March. The CPI went up by 4.3% year-on-year in the month, 0.9 percentage points lower than February, and down by 1.2% month-on-month. It grew by 0.8% in February month-on-month. In the first quarter, the consumer price index went up by 4.9% year-on-year, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than that of January and February. What does this mean? The main reason behind the decline of CPI growth was the decline of food price growth, especially the year-on-year decline of pork price growth and its month-to-month decline. The results showed that the food supply was sufficient, and the logistics chain was smooth.

第三,产业升级持续发展。在疫情防控期间,整个产业的生产能力包括配套能力得到了很好的发挥,疫情尽管比较严重,但是产业没有受到大的影响,特别是以新产业、新产品和新商业模式为代表的新动能还逆势增长。3月份,高技术产业增加值增长8.9%,比1-2月份大幅回升了20多个百分点;3D打印设备、单晶硅、多晶硅和智能手表等,继续保持较快增长。与互联网相关的经济表现比较活跃,电子商务、在线学习、远程问诊等,得到比较快的发展。实物商品网上零售额3月份增长了5.9%,占社会消费品零售总额的比重为23.6%,比上年同期提高了5.4个百分点。从增加值的角度来看,一季度信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增加值增长13.2%,拉动GDP增长0.6个百分点,还有金融业增长6%。所以,尽管疫情比较严重,但是新动能较快成长的态势没有改变。

Third, industrial upgrading developed continuously. During the period of pandemic prevention and control, overall production capacity, including the matching capacity of the whole industry, was fully developed. Against the backdrop of a severe pandemic, the industry was not seriously impacted, and the new drivers represented by new industry, products and business models grew against the trend. In March, high-tech industry went up by 8.9% year-on-year, which is 20 percentage points higher than that of January and February. 3D printing equipment, mono-crystal silicon, polycrystalline silicon and smart watch kept developing rapidly. The economic performance related to the internet, e-commerce, online learning and long-distance inquiry was energetic and realized speedy development. The value of online physical commodity retail sales increased by 5.9% in March, accounting for 23.6% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, or 5.4 percentage points higher than that of last year. From the perspective of added value, the value-added of information transmission, software and IT services increased by 13.2% in the first quarter, contributing to the growth of GDP by 0.6 percentage points. The financial industry grew by 6%. Therefore, though the pandemic was daunting, the rapid growth of new drivers was not changed. 

第四,脱贫攻坚扎实推进。党中央高度重视脱贫攻坚工作,今年一季度下达中央的扶贫资金1396亿元,全国中西部22个省扶贫项目已超过26万个开工建设。从收入来看,贫困人口比较多的一些地区,比如四川、广西、西藏、贵州、青海一季度居民人均可支配收入分别名义增长了5.3% 、4.6%、9.5%、4.8%和3.1%,明显高于全国水平。

Fourth, stable progress has been made in terms of poverty-alleviation tasks. The CPC Central Committee has attached supreme importance to the poverty-alleviation work and funded 139.6 billion yuan during the first quarter of this year that will trickle down to the needy population. So far, construction has begun on more than 260,000 poverty reduction projects in 22 provincial-level regions in central and western parts of the country. Meanwhile, average personal disposable incomes in Sichuan, Guangxi, Tibet, Guizhou and Qinghai, where the size of the destitute population is larger than in other parts of the country, grew nominally by 5.3%, 4.6%, 9.5%, 4.8% and 3.1%, respectively, with each registering a rate above the national average.  

第五,回升的态势有望延续。从一些相关指标来看,比如用电量,3月份用电量降幅比2月份明显收窄,特别是3月末用电量,包括全社会的发电量开始持平和转正;从目前来看,4月上旬全社会的发电量保持正增长。这是一个很重要的指标。国家统计局5000万元以上投资入库项目,一季度是11477个,比上年同期还增加了144个。3月份挖掘机销售同比增长了11.6%。3月份进出口形势也比1-2月份明显改善,从3月份来看上中下旬环比逐渐改善。另外,从目前调研和了解的情况来看,4月上旬进出口的形势比3月份进一步有所改善。特别是前期出台的一系列政策,包括帮扶企业渡过难关的政策、帮助推进复工复产的政策举措,在不断显效。

Fifth, the momentum of rebound is expected to continue. Electricity consumption, considered one of the most important indicators, registered a decline in March that was far narrower than in the prior month. Nationwide electricity consumption and generation rebounded, and have kept rising since the end of March. Moreover, China's total electricity generation in early April was observed with positive growth. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the first quarter of 2020 saw 11,477 investment projects -- estimated above 50 million yuan each -- in its database, an increase of 144 in number year on year. Sales of excavators grew by 11.6% year on year in March. Meanwhile, imports and exports have significantly improved compared to the first two months, and in March alone, the performance has been constantly refined. More to the point, based on our investigations and researches, imports and exports kept on ameliorating in early April, following a slew of policies devised to assist enterprises to surmount financial woes and help resume work and production, and these efforts continue to pay off.

下一步,我们还会根据形势的变化,相机推出一些更大力度的政策。所以可以预计,下一阶段经济会延续回升改善、持续向好的势头。谢谢。

In our next phase, stronger policies will be rolled out in response to changing situations. It is foreseeable that the economy will continue to rebound, to improve and to secure sound momentum. Thank you.

香港南华早报记者:

South China Morning Post:

可以看到,一季度数据反映出新冠疫情对中国经济还是产生了较大影响,请问您预测二季度是否能成为中国今年经济增长的拐点?另外,今年中国是否会考虑不设定具体的GDP增长目标?国际货币基金组织最新预测中国经济增速今年会降到1.2%,不知道您对此有何回应?谢谢。

Based on your prediction, given that the data released on the first quarter reflected a considerable impact caused by the coronavirus pandemic, will the second quarter mark the tipping point of China's economy? Moreover, will China abrogate setting a specific GDP growth target this year? How will you respond to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s latest forecast in which the economic growth in China is estimated to plummet to 1.2% this year? Thank you.  

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

先回答第三个问题。最近,国际货币基金组织根据当前国际疫情蔓延的态势以及当前全球经济的表现,对全球经济增长预期进行大幅度下调,预计全球经济今年下降3%,中国增长1.2%,中国是全球主要经济体里少数预计为正增长的国家之一。同时我还注意到,国际货币基金组织预计2021年中国经济增长速度是9.2%。我的理解是,今年和明年如果平均起来,应该在5%以上,或者可以理解为,中国经济因为疫情影响带来一些损失,一些经济活动被压抑,可能会在明年更好地释放出来。

I would like to answer the third question first. Recently, with the spread of the pandemic and the performance of the global economy, the IMF has substantially lowered its growth forecast, indicating that the world economy may contract by 3% on average. However, China, estimated to maintain a 1.2% growth, is among the few major economies to continue developing with positive growth. Meanwhile, I have also noted that the IMF forecasts China's economy to grow by 9.2% in 2021. The growth, from my point of view, will still average out at above 5% for the two years combined. We can also consider that next year, the Chinese economy will better unleash its activities and compensate losses incurred by the pandemic. 

关于二季度是否会成为拐点,从目前经济运行情况来看,3月份比1-2月份明显改善,这是一个基本判断。3月份这种改善的势头应该是能够延续下去,特别是随着复工复产加快统筹推进,更大力度的政策不断出台,二季度表现会更好,所以二季度会明显好于一季度,这是一个基本趋势。如果全球疫情控制比较好,下半年应该会比上半年更好。我们的目标就是力促全年经济平稳运行和社会大局稳定。

Regarding whether the tipping point will emerge in the second quarter, economic operations greatly improved in March compared to the prior two months, providing a fundamental judgment. The momentum of sound economic recovery in March can be continued, as the basic trend in the economy can play a much better role in the second quarter with the adoption of more influential policies as well as the efficient and orderly resumption of work and production. In addition, if the pandemic can be effectively controlled around the world, the economy in the next half-year should be better than it was in the first half. Our goal is to secure smooth economic operations and social stability throughout the year. 

具体你讲到的年度经济增长目标,按照惯例,我们每年主要经济社会发展目标都是在两会期间的政府工作报告中向社会公布的。今年,为了有效防控疫情,两会进行了推迟,目前我们还不掌握具体情况。谢谢。

Regarding your concern about the annual growth target, this is always released by the government work report that is delivered during the two sessions (the annual meetings of the National People's Congress and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference). To better control the pandemic, the sessions have been postponed this year. As a result, we know nothing specific about the rate right now. Thank you.

彭博新闻社记者:

Bloomberg:

我有两个问题,第一个问题,随着复工复产很多工业企业也面临融资和物流成本上升的问题,所以在复工复产的过程中他们是否会面临继续关停的风险,因为外部需求下降他们会否面临更大的困难?您认为一季度在这种情况下,社会消费品零售总额会出现比较大的增长,背后会有什么样的推动因素?第二个问题,现在很多地方都在讨论发放消费券的问题,在台湾和日本也已经采取这样的措施,但是目前看效果并不明显,您认为消费券能够在多大程度上推动社会消费品零售总额增长?谢谢。

I also have two questions. First, manufacturers that resume work after the outbreak may be forced to halt production again due to weak demand, rising costs and difficulty in funding and logistics, according to an industry ministry official who was speaking yesterday. Considering that, companies are having to shut down again because of clearly weak export demand and also the dire picture of retail sales and consumption that we saw in the data today. Can growth actually rebound in this quarter? And what will be the driver for that growth? My second question is regarding consumption vouchers, which are being discussed. Their use in places like Taiwan and Japan in the past has had some impact, but the multiplier hasn't really been that high. What is your hope for the multiplier of consumption vouchers? And do you think that will be a strong driver for retail sales and consumption? Thank you.

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

谢谢您的提问,这两个问题都非常好。关于第一个问题,随着复工复产的推进,企业可能还是面临物流成本上升以及订单减少等困难。客观说,目前复工复产的推进是比较顺利的,规模以上企业复工程度已经接近100%了,大企业基本都复工了。同时,中小企业复工程度比想象中好,总体来说也是在80%以上。所以,企业复工复产的进度总体比较好。

Thank you for your question. These two questions are very good. Regarding the first one, in the process of resuming work and production, enterprises may still face difficulties, such as rising logistics costs and reduced orders. Objectively speaking, the current progress of resuming work and production is relatively smooth. The resumption of work and the production of enterprises above the designated size is getting close to 100%, which means essentially all large enterprises have resumed work. At the same time, the resumption of work and production of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is better than expected, generally speaking, as more than 80% have resumed work. Therefore, the progress of enterprises resuming work and production is generally going well. 

您提到的物流成本,总体来说现在因为生产生活秩序逐步恢复,物流成本和前期比实际是在下降,物流整体是更加畅通了。但是我们也要看到,因为当前外部情况更加复杂,国内的需求总体来说比较疲弱,实际上,企业还是面临着需求不足、订单有所下降的困难。针对这样一些困难,前期我们已经出台了一系列的政策,帮助企业渡过难关,包括进一步减税降费,降低企业各方面成本,包括减免、缓交、少交社保费等,增加对企业的资金支持,帮助企业恢复生产。

The logistics cost you mentioned is actually declining compared to that of previous periods, because production and overall livelihood are gradually being restored. And logistics are smoother in general. However, we must also see that, since the current external situation is more complicated and domestic demand is generally weak, enterprises do still face difficulties in insufficient demands and declined orders. In response to such difficulties, we introduced a series of policies in the earlier stages of the outbreak to help enterprises overcome difficulties, including further tax and fees reduction, and to reduce all aspects of costs for enterprises, including reductions and deferrals, as well as the reduction of social insurance premiums, etc., to increase capital support for enterprises, in turn helping them resume production. 

但是我们讲,因为当前市场环境仍比较复杂,所以企业面临的困难还比较多,从下一阶段来说,政策力度还会进一步加大,而且还要提高政策的精准性。

However, we must add that because the current market environment is still relatively complex, enterprises are still facing many difficulties. In the next stage, policy will be further strengthened, and the accuracy of that policy will also be improved.

您说的社会消费品零售总额保持增长,其实从一季度来看,社会消费品零售总额是下降的,而且下降幅度还比较大。但是,从3月份来看,复工复产复商复市都在推进,3月份市场销售情况比1-2月份降幅明显收窄了,但是整个一季度还呈下降态势。从下一阶段来看,随着生产生活秩序逐步恢复正常,前期压抑的一些消费行为后阶段会得到一定程度的回补,消费会逐步企稳回升。这是第一个问题。

Regarding the growth of total retail sales volume of social consumer goods you mentioned, in fact, looking at the first quarter, we can see that total retail sales of social consumer goods declined, and the decline was relatively significant. However, looking at what happened in March, we see the resumption of work and production, and the resumption of businesses, and the markets are all progressing. The decline of market sales in March has narrowed significantly compared to the declines in January through February. But the whole first quarter showed a downward trend. In the next stage, as the orders of production and people's lives gradually return to normal, some consumption behaviors suppressed in the previous months will be compensated to some extent in the later periods, and consumption will gradually stabilize and rebound. This is the answer to your first question.  

第二个问题,至于您讲到的消费券。有些国家和地区推出了这些政策,在我们国家有些地方政府也是试行了这样一些政策,从浙江、江苏等地来看,推出消费券政策以后,对扩大当地居民消费、促进市场活跃还是起到了比较好的作用。谢谢。

Your second question concerns the consumer vouchers you mentioned. Some countries and regions have introduced these policies, and some local governments in our country have also tried such policies. From the perspective of Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other places, we can see that after the introduction of consumer voucher policies, they have played a relatively good role in expanding the consumption of local residents and promoting market vitality. Thank you.

CNBC记者:

CNBC:

第一季度经济负增速有没有受全球疫情蔓延影响?在消费方面,请问直播带货有没有一些具体影响?最后请问就业方面还有什么挑战?3、4月份是什么样的具体情况?谢谢。

Was the negative economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 affected by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic? In terms of consumption, has internet influencer marketing been impacted? Finally, what are the challenges to employment? What is the current situation in March and April? Thank you.

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

谢谢您的提问。

Thank you for your questions.

第一,疫情冲击确实比较明显,量化测算比较困难。因为有的影响是直接的,有的可能是间接的,有的是短期的,有的也可能是长期的,而且短期看带来一些冲击,但是后期因为中国经济韧性比较强,又可能得到一些回补,所以具体的量化测算还是比较难的。

To the first question, the impact of the pandemic is indeed obvious, and it is hard to get a quantitative calculation. This is because some of the impacts are direct, some may be indirect, some are short-term and some may be long-term. A hard hit now may get recovered later, as China's economy is relatively resilient, so any specific quantitative calculation is still difficult.

第二,关于消费和直播带货的问题。从下一步来看,要推动中国经济平稳运行,一定要更好地推动内需增长。当然这是在稳定外贸外资基本盘的同时,努力扩大国内需求。在扩大内需方面,一方面要努力增加有效投资,另一方面要释放消费潜力。中国的消费潜力是比较大的,只不过这段时间由于疫情的原因,大家的外出活动有所减少。下一阶段,消费潜力会逐步释放出来,比如新型消费形态增长更快,互联网消费形势增长更好。整体来说,前期被压抑的消费,后期会不断释放出来,会得到一定程度的回补,新型消费会表现更加强劲。

My second answer relates to consumption and internet influencer marketing. In the next step, we need to boost domestic demand to promote the smooth running of China's economy, which is based on stable foreign trade and investment at the same time. We should invest more and unleash consumer potential to promote domestic demand. China has huge consumer potential, but with the current spread of COVID-19, people cut their spending. Furthermore, consumer potential will be gradually tapped; for example, we will see new consumption patterns growing quickly and an effort to target online shopping. On the whole, the curb on consumption seen in early stages will be lifted in later stages, with new consumption types functioning actively. 

第三,关于就业的问题。从刚才介绍的情况来看,就业的形势总体是平稳的,3月份全国调查失业率比上月降低了0.3个百分点,主要就业人群25-59岁的失业率比上月下降了0.2个百分点,所以总体还是平稳的。但是就业的压力仍然比较大,特别是下阶段,随着经济下行压力加大,特别是企业的订单有所减少,需求还不是太强劲,在这种情况下,就业的压力还是比较大的。重点群体包括农村外出务工人员、大学生的就业压力会比较大。针对这种情况,今年国家一直在推出就业优先的政策,并不断加大落实力度。一方面,千方百计帮扶企业渡过难关,通过稳企业、稳经济,稳住就业的基本盘;另一方面,加大对重点群体的帮扶,比如增加对农民工的就业培训,帮扶他们返乡创业。下一步,还要继续灵活推动就业和创业创新。总的来看,还要用更大力度推动就业总体平稳。3、4月份情况刚才已经介绍了。3月份就业形势是在明显回升、改善,4月份应该会延续这种走势。谢谢。

To the third question, I'll address employment challenges. Statistics show China's overall employment situation is stable, with an unemployment rate in March that decreased by 0.3% and the main labor force group (aged 25-59) showing a 0.2% drop compared to last month. However, we still face relatively great pressure, especially in the stages with the increasing downward pressure of the economy, decreased orders from enterprises and lessened demand. In this case, rural migrant workers and college students are the key groups who are under relatively big pressure. In response to this situation, China has introduced employment priority policies, which have been implemented with concerted effort. On the one hand, our country is doing everything possible to help enterprises weather difficulties and maintain a balanced employment rate. On the other hand, we should assist key groups; for example, we should increase training for migrant workers and help them return home to start their own businesses. Next, we should continue to promote innovation in employment and business startups in a flexible way. Generally speaking, greater efforts should be made to advance the overall employment balance. The situation in March and April stands as such: In March, the employment situation was obviously rising and improving, and this trend should continue in April. Thank you.

中央广播电视总台央广记者:

China National Radio (CNR):

我们在材料中注意到,一季度第一产业增加值下降了3.2%,请问这是什么原因?是否意味着农业生产形势不那么乐观,还有很多百姓此前在屯粮,这是否有必要呢?谢谢。

We have noticed that the added value of the primary industry dropped 3.2%. What is the cause of this? And does it have negative implications for the agriculture sector? Many people have begun stockpiling grain. Is this necessary? Thanks.

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

谢谢您的提问。一季度第一产业增加值下降,主要是畜牧业拖累的原因。我们知道,由于前期非洲猪瘟疫情的影响,生猪生产环比尽管在改善,但是同比还是下降的。一季度猪肉产量同比下降了29.1%。由于近期疫情的影响,猪牛羊禽出栏受到一定影响,所以一季度畜牧业总产值下降了10.6%,而且一季度畜牧业在整个第一产业中占比约45%,所以拉低了第一产业增加值速度。

Thanks for your questions. The decrease in the added value of the primary industry is mainly attributed to the slow course of animal husbandry. As we all know, due to the African swine fever, hog production has seen a year-on-year decrease despite monthly increases. Hence, the pork production in Q1 decreased 29.1% compared to the same period last year. The epidemic has also affected livestock and poultry production, causing a decrease of 10.6% on animal husbandry's total output value. In Q1, the output of animal husbandry accounted for 45% of the entire primary industry, so its slowing drove down the growth of the added value of the primary industry.

第二,农业生产形势良好。从目前的情况来看,春耕春播有序推进,没有受到疫情的影响。占夏粮90%以上的冬小麦目前长势良好,根据调查,全国一些种粮大省粮食意向播种面积保持增长,这也改变了过去连续多年下降的局面。所以,综合这些情况来看,再加上当前农业生产条件、农业生产形势总体有利,这也为全年粮食丰收创造了比较良好的条件。

Second, agriculture production now goes well. As it stands, spring plowing and planting has proceeded in an orderly fashion, essentially unaffected by the epidemic. Winter wheat, which accounts for more than 90% of the total summer crops, is growing well. According to a survey, the sown areas in many granary provinces maintain continuous growth, reversing a multi-year trend of decline. In addition, the advantageous conditions and situation for agriculture production provide favorable conditions for this year's grain harvest.  

第三,当前粮食价格总体平稳。我们知道,过去五年粮食产量都在1.3万亿斤以上,2019年粮食产量创下历史新高,现在我国粮食自给率非常高,库存还很充裕。所以,从粮食的供求情况来看,一季度疫情影响这么大,粮食价格仍总体平稳,包括武汉在内的一些疫情重点地区的价格都没有出现大的波动。一季度粮食价格同比上涨0.6%,如果从3月份来看,粮食价格同比上涨0.7%,都是小幅上涨,环比持平。这一方面说明我国粮食供应能力强,另外一方面说明市场供求关系总体是稳定的。所以,从这个角度来看,把饭碗牢牢端在自己手中,是没有什么问题的。

Third, the current grain price is generally stable. As we all know, the yearly grain output has surpassed 650 billion kilograms in the past five years, reaching a record high in 2019. Currently, the self-sufficiency rate of grain in China is quite high, and we have an abundant stockpile. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, the grain price remained stable in the first quarter despite the large impact of the epidemic. Even in hard-hit places, including Wuhan, there was no major fluctuation in prices. The grain price in Q1 increased 0.6% year on year, and the price in March grew 0.7% compared to the same period last year. Both are modest increases, and the monthly increases are even. It indicates that China has strong grain supply capacity and the supply-demand relationship is generally stable. Therefore, the country is fully capable of feeding its people.

第四,就畜牧业来看,猪肉特别是包括生猪在内的畜牧业生产在加快恢复。随着复工复产的推进,特别是前期促进生猪生产的一系列政策不断落地见效,生猪生产在改善,在加快恢复。从一季度末来看,生猪存栏比上年末增长3.5%,其中能繁殖母猪增长9.8%,这是连续两个季度环比增长。所以,整个畜牧业在加快恢复和改善。谢谢。

Fourth, in terms of animal husbandry, livestock production is improving, especially hog production. Along with the further resumption of work and production and the implementation of supportive policies, hog production is being resumed and greatly improving. By the end of Q1, pig stocks grew 3.5% compared to the end of last year, and the number of breeding sows increased 9.8%, maintaining growth for two consecutive quarters. Therefore, the entire animal husbandry sector is speeding up resumption and improvement. Thank you.

英国金融时报记者:

Financial Times:

我有两个问题。首先,第一季度经济退化是否影响了2020年的小康社会目标,和2010年来比,2020年国家生产总值可不可以达到一倍?第二个问题,关于经济增长标准的问题,之前有专家提到相对经济增长这个概念,请问您是否觉得我们应该放弃目前的经济增长目标?谢谢。 

I have two questions. First, will the economic downturn in the first quarter of 2020 have an impact on achieving this year's goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects? And will the gross domestic product (GDP) of 2020 double that of 2010? The second question is about the economic growth criteria. Some experts have mentioned the concept of relative economic growth before. Do you think we should abandon the current economic growth target? Thank you.

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

谢谢您的提问。一季度增速还是要客观来看,不要把今年的经济增长情况和常规年的问题简单比较,因为今年新冠疫情突如其来,而且影响较大,不能简单地比,我们还要以平常心看待一季度经济增长。

Thank you for your questions. The growth rate in the first quarter of this year needs to be viewed objectively. We cannot simply compare this year's economic growth with that of a conventional year due to the outbreak of COVID-19 and the considerable impact it will produce this year. We need to look at the Q1 economic growth with a calm mind.

第一,要看到疫情严重冲击的影响。新冠疫情是新中国成立以来在我国传播速度最快、感染范围最大、防控强度最大的突发公共卫生事件。面对这么大的疫情,党中央坚持把人民的生命安全和身体健康摆在第一位,采取了强有力的防控措施,在比较短的时间内,比较好地控制住了疫情传播,减少了数以百万计的感染,挽救了大量同胞的生命,当然也不得不付出一些短暂的经济代价。

First, we need to take into account the severe impact of the pandemic. The novel coronavirus disease epidemic is a major public health emergency that has spread the fastest, caused the most extensive infections and been the hardest to contain since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949. Facing such a severe epidemic, the CPC Central Committee has been putting people's safety and health as the top priority. A variety of forceful prevention measures have been put in place. The epidemic transmission was contained in a relatively short period, which prevented millions more from being infected and saved the lives of many Chinese people. Nevertheless, the price of achieving this was short-term economic loss. 

第二,要看到全球经济贸易大幅度下降的背景。疫情在全球200多个国家和地区蔓延扩散,现在全球跨境投资、货物贸易和人员往来大幅度减少,一些国家机构纷纷下调增长预期,在这个大背景下,中国很难独善其身。

Second, we need to consider the backdrop wherein the global economy and trade have declined sharply. As the pandemic has spread to more than 200 countries and regions worldwide, global cross-border investment, trade in goods and personnel exchange has fallen sharply. Some countries and institutes have lowered their growth forecast. China can hardly stand aloof against such a backdrop.

第三,要看到中国整个产业体系的优势。中国产业生产能力比较强大,配套设施有较强优势,在疫情防控中发挥了独特作用。同时,这种能力不仅没有受到疫情冲击,而且在疫情中得到进一步巩固和提升。尽管速度下来了,但是整个产业体系并没有受到冲击,整个生产能力没有受到影响。社会生产体系是健全的,生产能力是充裕的,经济恢复产能就能逐步释放出来。

Third, we need to look at the advantages of China's entire industrial system. China's strong industrial production capacity, as well as its supporting facilities that are in an advantageous place, played a unique role in epidemic prevention and control. Meanwhile, such capacity has been further consolidated and enhanced over the course of the epidemic rather than being damaged by it. Despite a slowdown in growth, the industrial system as a whole was not impacted and neither was the entire production capacity. China has a sound social production system and ample production capacity. When the economy recovers, the capacity will release gradually. 

第四,要看到中国经济长期向好的趋势没有变。疫情是突发公共事件,支撑中国经济长期向好的基本条件和基本因素没有变。中国市场规模大、成长快、潜力充裕的基本特点不会改变。从要素支撑来看,产业基础比较好,配套能力比较强,劳动力比较充裕,人力资本不断积累,还有物流、交通设施等效率都比较好,这些能够有效支撑经济的中长期增长。同时,持续不断深化改革开放,推动创新,不断激发经济的内生动力、潜力和活力。所以中国经济长期向好的基本面,不会因为疫情短期的冲击就发生变化,一季度经济总量下降6.8%,我们要用平常的心来看待,要综合疫情冲击、外部环境变化、自身产业体系优势长期向好的基本面来看。

Fourth, we need to see that the long-term upward trend of China's economy has not changed. The epidemic is a public emergency. The basic conditions and factors supporting China's long-term economic growth have not changed. The Chinese market is large and growing rapidly with great potential. Such fundamental characteristics will not change. In light of supporting factors, China has a sound industrial foundation with a strong supporting capacity and an ample labor force of constantly accumulating human capital as well as efficient logistics and transportation facilities, which will effectively support its medium- and long-term economic growth. Meanwhile, China will continue to deepen reforms and opening up and promote innovation to unleash the driving force, the potential and vitality of the economy. Therefore, the fundamentals of China's economy that is on a long-term upward trend will not change over the course of the short-term impact incurred from the epidemic. China's GDP in Q1 dropped 6.8 percent year on year. We need to consider this information with a calm mind, taking into account fundamental factors, including the impact of the epidemic, changes to the external environment and the advantages of China's own industrial system that is on a long-term upward trend.

另外,关于全面小康的问题。党的十八大提出全面建成小康社会和两个一百年奋斗目标。经过这么多年经济社会持续发展,总体而言,我国已经基本实现全面建成小康社会目标。当然还有一些短板,最大的短板就是脱贫攻坚。所以现在全党全国的工作重心放在坚决打赢脱贫攻坚上。脱贫攻坚顺利推进了,这个仗打赢了,我们全面小康社会目标实现得会更好,全面小康就更有质量,更经得起历史检验,更能让人民群众满意。

With regard to the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, one of the two centenary goals set out at the 18th CPC National Congress, China has basically achieved the goal on the whole after years of sustained economic and social development. Of course, there are still some shortcomings, the biggest of which is poverty alleviation. So, the focus of the entire Party and the whole country is to set itself on a course that will lead to winning the battle against poverty. As we make progress and win battles, the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects will be better achieved. Such a society will be of better quality, more amenable to the test of history and more satisfying to the people.

从全球范围来看,中国经济在IMF预测的结果中略好一些,但整体来看,全球都受到了新冠肺炎疫情的影响和冲击,这就说明,全世界确实是一个“地球村”,是人类命运共同体,病毒是全人类共同的敌人。在这种情况下,全球要加强疫情防控的国际合作,尽可能在短时间内控制疫情、加强研发、找到问题的解决办法,这样才能更好地推动世界经济尽早回到正常的轨道上来。谢谢。

Speaking globally, the Chinese economy fared slightly better in the IMF's forecasts. But the world has been affected and impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic on the whole. This shows that the world is indeed a global village and a community with a shared future for humanity, and the virus is the common enemy of all humanity. In this instance, the world needs to step up international cooperation to contain the epidemic as soon as possible by improving development and research in order to find solutions. In this way, we can get the world economy back on track at an early date. Thank you.

BBC记者:

BBC:

我们看到今天发布会的主题是统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展成效显著,您刚才也提到从许多经济指标看降幅都已经在收窄,同时复产复工效果明显。我们知道,各国政府都会愿意强调工作所取得的成果,但是我想说,如果从这次发布数据当中找表现最差的数据来看,您认为这个数据的影响有多大?

I noticed the headline of today's press conference is about notable progress in coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. You mentioned just now that falls in many economic indicators has been narrowing, and the effect of resuming production and work is obvious. We know that all governments are willing to emphasize what has been achieved. However, looking at the worst data released on this report, how big of an effect do you think these numbers will have?

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

谢谢您的提问。这个问题很有挑战性。刚才介绍了这么多数据,总的来看,一季度经济指标受疫情的影响冲击比较大,回落比较多。但同时,在一系列政策的作用下,3月份又出现了明显的改善趋势,这是从主要数据来看而得出的结论。

Thank you. This is a very challenging question. We just introduced lots of data. Generally speaking, economic indicators have dropped a lot in the first quarter due to the epidemic outbreak. But at the same time, this trend has improved remarkably in March thanks to a series of policies. This is a conclusion drawn from key data. 

您说到的最大困难,从国内来看,现在应该努力帮扶企业,包括中小企业在内的市场主体,要加强对它们的精准帮扶,帮助它们更好渡过难关,在税收、费用、各方面成本、资金支持等方面给予支持。稳住了企业才有可能稳住就业,才有可能稳住经济,才有可能稳住经济大盘,保证经济平稳运行。这是一个方面。

The biggest domestic challenge, as you mentioned, is working hard to help enterprises. We will enhance targeted support to main market players, including small and medium-sized enterprises, to help them get through this difficult time. We will support them in terms of taxation, fees, costs and financial support. Employment and the economy can only be secured if enterprises are stable. This is one aspect. 

第二,从全球范围来看,越是困难的时候,全球各个国家越要加强合作,特别是疫情防控领域的国际合作,使疫情防控效果不断显现,减少疫情带来的影响。只有疫情控制住了,我们复工复产包括生产生活秩序才能更好更快地走上正常的轨道,世界经济才更可能步入常态。谢谢。

Second, from a global point of view, countries around the world should enhance cooperation during this difficult time, especially in the field of epidemic prevention and control, so as to make the epidemic prevention and control more effective and reduce the impact of the outbreak. Work resumption and the order of life will then get back on the right track, and the world economy will be more likely to return to normal, only if the epidemic is under control. Thanks.

第一财经电视记者:

Yicai TV:

尽管今年一季度消费有比较明显的下滑,但是在这个过程中,我们网上零售仍然保持了比较好的韧性,请问未来网上零售相关的经济是否还会有更进一步、更大潜力的增长?谢谢。

Although consumption has declined markedly in the first quarter of this year, online retail has remained resilient throughout the process. Will online retail and the related economy contain further and greater growth potential in the future? Thank you.

毛盛勇:

Mao Shengyong:

关于消费,我觉得可以从两个方面来看。

Regarding consumption, we can look at this from two aspects.

第一,从一季度来看,消费确实受到了一些抑制,比如大家的外出活动特别服务消费受到的抑制比较多。下一步,随着生产生活秩序逐步恢复正常,前期压抑的消费会得到一些回补。另外,正常的消费会陆陆续续表现出来。第二,尽管消费受到一些影响,但是我们还是要坚定地看到我国的消费潜力是巨大的,而且推动未来经济平稳健康发展,还很大程度上要依靠消费的扩张。如何扩张消费,核心就是两个方面:一是消费能力,二是消费意愿。可能有的同志看到,一季度全国居民平均收入不怎么样,消费还有潜力吗?不一定。决定消费的因素,不仅仅是看当前的收入,也要看预期的收入,还要看财产的状况,包括存款等等。所以居民收入只是影响短期消费的因素之一。下一阶段,随着经济逐步恢复,居民收入增长也会逐步好转,特别从消费意愿来看,人民追求美好生活的愿望是比较强烈的,消费结构总体升级的趋势是不可逆转的。特别是现在社会保障的程度在不断提高,覆盖面在扩大,保障水平在逐年提升。在这样一种情况下,消费还是有很大的潜力。下一步,要加大各方面的政策力度,释放消费潜力,近期出台了不少扩消费的政策,23个部委的文件前一阶段也出台了。

First, consumption did experience some restraint in the first quarter, especially in terms of outdoor activities and service consumption. Next, as the order of production and life returns to normal gradually, consumption previously depressed will receive some compensation, and the consumption will gradually return to normal. In addition, although consumption has been affected by the epidemic, we must firmly recognize that consumption in our country still possesses huge potential. The steady and sound development of the Chinese economy in the future depends largely on the expansion of consumption. So how can we expand consumption? The core answer consists of two parts: consumption ability and consumption intention. Some people may wonder if consumption still contains such potential given that the national average income was not very good in the first quarter. But consumption is not determined solely by current income, it also involves expected income and the status of property, including savings. Thus, household income is only one of the factors affecting short-term consumption. In the next stage, with the gradual recovery of the economy, the residents' income will gradually increase. Regarding consumption intention, the desire for a better life among our people is quite strong, and the overall trend of upgrading the consumption structure is irreversible. In particular, at present, the degree of social security is constantly improving, its coverage is expanding, and its level is increasing year by year. Under such circumstances, the consumption in our country still possesses huge potential. Next, we will strengthen the intensity of policy implementation and unleash the potential of consumption. Recently, we have introduced a number of policies to expand consumption, including a policy jointly released by 23 ministries and commissions. 

第二,跟网络相关的消费新业态表现得更加强劲。互联网应用越来越广泛,已经深入影响人们的生产生活行为。网上消费速度增长相对更加快一些,占总体消费的比重还会逐步提升,这是一个基本的发展方向。谢谢。

Second, new forms of consumption related to the internet have shown strong performance. As the use of the internet becomes increasingly widespread, it has deeply influenced people's production and life. The growth of online consumption is relatively faster, and its proportion of the total consumption will gradually increase. This is a basic development trend. Thank you.

袭艳春:

Xi Yanchun:

大家知道我刚刚从武汉回来,在疫情防控方面,我们曾经面临着非常艰难的阶段,但是经此一疫,中国有了战胜任何困难和挑战的底气、信心和力量。刚才毛司长介绍了,我们现在经济发展确实也面临很多挑战,希望大家在看待中国经济发展的时候,能够用全面、辩证、长远的眼光来看待,因为中国经济有条件、有能力,也有信心化危为机,赢得发展的主动权。如果大家关于中国经济发展还有什么关心的问题,也欢迎给我们提出来,我们很愿意给大家提供更好的信息服务。再次感谢毛盛勇司长,也谢谢大家。今天的发布会到此结束。

I just returned to Beijing from Wuhan. During the prevention and control of the epidemic, the Chinese people were presented with a very tough situation. However, after the fight against the outbreak, China has gained the confidence, courage and strength to overcome any difficulty and any challenge. Just as Mr. Mao said, the Chinese economy is presently facing a number of challenges. However, we should view China's economic development from a comprehensive, dialectical and long-term perspective, because the Chinese economy has the condition, the ability and the confidence to turn crisis into opportunity and gain initiative in development. If you have any questions about China's economic development, please feel free to let us know. We are more than willing to provide you with better information services. Thanks again to Mr. Mao, and thank you all. Today's press conference is hereby concluded.


来源:国新办